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Item #d94may13

"Constraints on the Expansion of the Global Food Supply," H.W. Kendall (Mass. Inst. Technol., Rm. 24-514, Cambridge MA 02139), D. Pimentel, Ambio, 23(3), 198-205, May 1994.

Examines whether and how global food production may be increased to provide for a world population expected to double by about 2050. A business-as-usual scenario points to looming shortages of food. In addition, stress from possible climatic alteration and enhanced ultraviolet radiation may make satisfactory production extremely difficult. Identifies the nature of the changes required to make sufficient food available.

Item #d94may14

"Environmental Degradation, Global Food Production, and Risk for Large-Scale Migration," B.R. Döös (Jordangasse 7/13, A-1010 Vienna, Austria), Ambio, 23(2), 124-130, Mar. 1994.

Estimates the impact of processes such as soil erosion, salinization, chemical contamination, ultraviolet radiation and biotic stress, as well as opportunities to improve food production efficiency. Calculates that during the next 30-35 years, the annual gain in food production will be significantly lower than the rate of world population growth.

Item #d94may15

Special issue: Food Policy, 19(2), April 1994. Published (by Butterworth-Heinemann) simultaneously with a special issue of Global Environ. Change, with reviewed papers from a 1993 NATO workshop on climate change and food security. (The Global Environ. Change papers were summarized in GCCD, April 1994; those from Food Policy are summarized here.) Single copies £46 (Europe); £48 (elsewhere).

"Introduction: Climate Change and World Food Security," T.E. Downing (Environ. Change Unit, Univ. Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK), M.L. Parry, 99-104. The workshop brought together three groups: food policy and hunger researchers, primarily from the social sciences; agricultural system modelers; and climate impact assessment specialists. They concluded that climate change threatens the livelihood of vulnerable populations in marginal areas, and developed recommendations for further research.

"Demand and Supply: Trends in Global Agriculture," P. Crosson (Resour. for the Future, 1616 P St. NW, Washington DC 20036), J.R. Anderson, 105-119. Addresses whether the global agricultural system can satisfy demand for food and fiber to the year 2030 at acceptable economic and environmental costs. Knowledge is the key factor; it can be more readily developed, and can be substituted for resources.

"Climate Change and Involuntary Migration: Implications for Food Security," J. McGregor (Refugee Studies Prog., Univ. Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK), 120-132. Questions assumptions on which alarmist projections are based: how studies conceptualize the link between environmental change and migration, and premises underlying the link between migration and food security. The term environmental refugee is misleading.

"Multiple Threats to Regional Food Production: Environment, Economy, Population?" D. Norse (Environ. Change Unit, Univ. Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK), 133-148. Examines relationships among four threats: climate change, environmental degradation, economic growth and population growth. Uncertainty has led to two polarized views about their outcome, both of which must be challenged.

"Agricultural Policy, Climate Change and Food Security in Mexico," K. Appendini (Centro de Estudios Econ., El Colegio de México, Camino Al Ajusco 20, Mexico D1000, Mex.), D. Liverman, 149-164. Examines conditions in 20th century Mexico to provide a context for thinking about the implications for Mexico of two types of global change: the internationalization of economics, and the transformation of the environment.

"Climate Change: Some Likely Multiple Impacts in Southern Africa," C.H.D. Magazda (Univ. Lake Kariba Res. Sta., POB 48 Kariba, Zimbabwe), 165-191. Examines ecological, agricultural and health impacts.

"World Food Security: Prospects and Trends," R.S. Chen (CIESIN, 2250 Pierce Rd., Univ. Ctr. MI 48710), R.W. Kates, 192-208. Offers a speculative and clearly optimistic scenario for achieving food security in a warmer, more crowded world of 2060, requiring widespread acknowledgment of food as a human right, a pervasive global safety net, and the capacity to cope with surprise.

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