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The following three articles are part of a special section on environment and energy conservation in The Energy J., 15(1), Jan. 1994.

Item #d94may1

"The Costs of Stabilizing Global CO2 Emissions: A Probabilistic Model Based on Expert Judgments," A.S. Manne (Dept. Operations Res., Stanford Univ., Stanford CA 94305), R.G. Richels, ibid., 31-56.

Policy makers need information on the range and relative likelihood of possible outcomes, but previous analyses have made no attempt to assign probabilities to various scenarios. This study uses such estimates to project an annual cost of between 0.2 and 6.8 percent of gross world product; expected cost is 1.5 percent.

Item #d94may2

"International Trade in Oil, Gas and Carbon Emission Rights: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model," A.S. Manne (address immed. above), T.F. Rutherford, ibid., 57-76.

Employs a five-region model to explore three related issues: the impact of carbon limits on future oil prices; the problem of "leakage," which arises if the OECD countries were to adopt unilateral emission limits; and gains from trade in carbon emission rights. The near- and long-term impacts of carbon limits are likely to differ.

Item #d94may3

"A Climate Treaty and the Norwegian Economy: A CGE Assessment," A. Brendemoen (Statistics Norway, P.B. 8131 Dep, 0033 Oslo 1, Norway), H. Vennemo, ibid., 77-94.

Results from a disaggregate computable general equilibrium model suggest that CO2 emissions will decrease compared to the current level. The distributional impacts are modest, and increases in secondary benefits recoup almost one half of the loss in private consumption.

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